12 posts tagged “climate change”

Climate report:

Droughts in the southeast and the west, recrod rainfall in the middle of the country. same as last year and the year before. Result: massive flooding in the middle of the country. Widespread wildfires in the west. There have also been wildfires in the east. Lightning seems to be the main culprit.

Math lesson for Monday:

loads and loads of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere = global warming faster than would normally happen

runaway global warming = more severe storms, droughts, and / or flooding or more flooding than normal (aka climate gone bonkers, and those are just a few of the issues)

more severe storms = more lightning strikes

drought = dry forests

lightning strikes + dry forests = wildfires

massive flooding = dead crops, dead animals and dead people

CO2 + CH4 = R

R = a, b, c

a = x

b = y

c = we're f*cked 

x + y = oh sh*t

R = Right. Not actually funny. It sucks. R is for reality check.

(last night we had storms in the southeast and the lightning was phenomenal. This after no rain for nearly all of June.I miss gentle rains; where did they go?)

 

Cyclones, another word for hurricanes (as well as typhoons), do normally occur in the Bay of Bengal. On this planet, in most cases, warm water + wind blowing the right way = tropical storms. The average occurrence of tropical storms is 4 to 6 storms with only 2 reaching cyclone status per year, and the season runs from the spring through fall, going to sleep from June til September, being influenced by such factors as monsoons when the ITCZ moves over land. The peak number normally occur in October. They form in the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), the same wind belt where storms form in the Atlantic. The frequency of storms has been found to be increasing during ENSO (El Nino) years (according to the SAARC Meteorological Research Centre).

The powerful cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar, formerly Burma, on May 2, 2008. At its peak it was a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 195 kilometers per hour (kmh). Highest recorded winds were 220 kmh. The storm surge caused a large tidal wave 12 feet in height that washed out entire villages. UN officials report that hundreds of thousands of people are now homeless. There is massive price gouging of food, water and fuel.

 

The death toll now stands at 15,000 people, with 30,000 still missing. (May 5) UPDATE MAY 7: OVER 22,000 DEAD, 41,000 MISSING, 1 MILLION HOMELESS.

The UN has consulted with many scientists and last year issued a report which included the statement, that the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons is increasing, and is directly related to global warming. If as you read this, you sit on your sofa, or computer chair, or on the grass of the park, and feel helpess, you are not. You care enough to read this, and you can care enough to unplug your clothes dryer, or increase the temp so the air conditioning is not so low you can sleep beneath a blanket in the hot of summer; you can shop with your carbon footprint in mind; you can ride a bike to work; you can vote. We are not helpless. We have enough will and brain power to make change.

Peace out.

The UN Secretary-General has stated that finding a solution to slow global warming is the "defining challenge of our time".

Dubya and his cronies whined that China and India were not held to as much of GHG emission cuts as they should be.

190 countries have gotten their heads together to wrangle something they can all agree upon (more or less) to keep the juices flowing (or rather, stem them) for 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol promises run out.

After 13 days of wrangling, the United States finally gave up a bit of its lack of cooperation and agreed to agree.

But then only a couple of hours after that, Dubya’s club announced they were pissed off and will make trouble with future limits because of "energy security" (remember that lame-arse and actually very scary term? We have only to look at Iraq to know what that means) and "economic" hogwash. (Here’s the real deal: America can not continue down the path it has been on. We do not have the right to suck the world dry, as well as it will simply and without fail, self-destruct our economy. You can not base your future on a dying set of ideals. It’s as if the ideals were old bagels too hard to eat, tossed to ducks. They will float for a bit, uneaten, growing manky, then sink to the bottom of the pond. )

They claim the US has the "right" to pursue those two aims.

They protest developing countries’ ability to develop with some leeway on their green targets. (Apparently no one but the US has the right to drive around in a f*ck-off giant vehicle and live in an over-air-conditioned 3500 s f house while paying less than half what other developed countries pay for fuel.)

Other leaders were irritated at the US’s blatant selfishness and greed, and made strong comments. Many look forward to next November and hope whomever takes Dubya’s place will have more sense and vision than his administration’s stagnant sinking bagel mentality.

The time to change America’s direction has come (actually, it came years ago, but we passed it by). The entire globe will turn its back on us if we do not. Not only that, it is not our right to live in a fantasy world where there is no impact from our actions. I realize not every person in the US lives or thinks like this, but our reigning government does. If we care about our children, we have to take the steps to make this come about.

Amendment:

I report the facts, as I find them in researching news articles, reports, and scientific data and documents. I also add my personal opinion on them. And, I like to throw in some humour, because if we can not find some of that in it, we (those of us who care) will just give up or go ballistic. (or maybe we could go and colonize our own planet, weeee)

The Kyoto Protocol (as I have previously written in the Kyoto Primer) allows for countries to be divided into "developing" and "developed". This means that one gets more priveledges in GHG emissions than the other. Obviously, developed countries get less.

There are two arguments to that allowance: one that developing countries deserve to have the luxuries and ability to boom economically that developed ones already have been enjoying for many generations. The other, that they should learn from our mistakes and have to take into consideration, developing in a greener way and in doing so, make sacrifices. I agree with both arguments, the second more strongly than the first. As well, how can you sacrifice what you do not already have? And, in order for the developed countries to become greener, their citizens will have to make sacrifices in their lifestyles, and thus, they do pay a price for what has been going on. Remember, there are carbon points that can be traded. These developing countries can rack up money by not being destructive to the environment, and that makes it easy for them to be greener. (read the Kytoto Primer, posted last month)

The governments of the developed countries have been aware of what scientists have ben saying for decades. Many decided to ignore, discredit, and even (in the case of the US) bury these findings. We could have made the transition  slowly, which would have had a much softer impact on us. (I have been making it as I became more and more informed, in my lifestyle, for decades. It's funny what you can do without or change and still be fine, in fact, be happier.)

There is only one true entity to blame for this price we are going to pay: the politicians and the corporations and lobbyists who paid them to behave as such. They have had a huge influence on everything from vehicle size to what kids drink at school to what medical supplies are packaged in. When I say, the US this or that, I actually do mean, them.

Methane Primer:

• Methane is CH4. That’s carbon and hydrogen linked together.
• Methane is the primary component of natural gas, 97% (which is made of dead stuff).
• Methane has the greenhouse gas ability ten to 20 times of CO2 over time. (The IPCC says, 25 times) This is complicated, because in reality it only has 1/3 the ability, but over time it causes more warming than CO2. Why? Methane breaks down in the atmosphere over a time period and becomes CO2 and water. How?
• CH₄ + 2O₂ → CO₂ + 2H₂O
• When things rot, they go through a process called reduction. In this process, a series of organisms eat the dead stuff til it’s gone. Last on the chain are critters (microbes) that can do so without oxygen, and only need carbon to do their thing, cause they do not breathe oxygen. When they’re done, it’s released, as CH4.
• Cows and like animals fart out methane and may be responsible for about 16% of the methane in the atmosphere at present (ew).

In Siberia, there is a great expanse of peat. It has been frozen in permafrost for a long sleepy time, about 11,000 years. Since around 2005, it has been waking up. Global warming has been the prince on the white horse, come to kiss the sleeping gas and give it a wakeup call.

The melting ice is forming lakes, and the lakes have the potential to burp out billions of tonnes of methane. Why? The reduction process, where dead plant material at the bottom breaks down and rots, which happens in water bodies naturally. But this has been frozen and having nowhere to go, now does. Where does the methane go? Up. Into the atmosphere.

At the University of California, Los Angeles, Larry Smith reckons the west Siberian bog alone contains some 70 billion tonnes of methane, a round ¼ of methane stored on the land surface globally.

 

More than five years ago, the eastern portion of Australia’s weather changed. It was a simple change, really: it stopped raining. The climate there had been working on it for two years before that (getting drier). The drought has spread to the southern coast as well.

Grapes are failing from the drought, and the Australian wine industry is thus suffering. Wheat crops are failed or stunted. Cattle and sheep farms are empty of livestock.

Kangaroos are making their way into populated areas, for lack of food.

 

65% of land that is farmable is now useless. Farmers are having to abandon their farms from simply, the inability to make a living. Sheep have been sold off. The area referred to as Australia’s Food Bowl, the Murray-Darling River Basin, is the size of France and Spain together. It is nurtured by the River Murray, which is so depleted of water that it no longer reaches the ocean.

The continuation of the drought this year has been enhanced by one of the warmest winters on record.

Scientists say that the usual weather patterns that serve the country have not been showing up. Also the Indian Ocean is colder than normal, which is causing the uncooperative weather to be even drier. This is supposed to be a La Nina year, which brings heavy rains but it has not happened. (Remember Noaa said it was an El Nino year for a bit. Oops.)

It can be normal for the continent to experience droughts. But not like this. This is something new. And in combination with warmer than normal temperatures, evaporation rate is higher, which means, even more drier. Neville Nichols from Monash University, says this is due to a response by the atmosphere to increased greenhouse gases. AKA, global warming. He says, and I quote: "In some regions, as happened in Australia, global warming will lead to abrupt regional change. In Australia, it arrived. In other regions, too, the changes will be rapid and sudden and confronting."

 

 

Not only are people suffering from the drought.

Importantly, because they did nothing to being this problem about, wildlife suffers too. As just one example, people are reporting seeing dead koala bears. Their staple food source, specific species of Eucalyptus trees, are dying off due to the extended drought. They were already having a tough time from development destroying their natural habitat, as well as pet dogs attacking and killing them.

 

So we are history
The shadow covers me
The sky above a blaze that only lovers see

He walks away
The sun goes down
He takes the day but I'm gone
And it's ok
In this blue shade
My tears dry on their own

(Amy Winehouse)

Terminology:

GHG = greenhouse gas/es

Kyoto Protocol:

An agreement between nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow down global warming. Target emission reductions use 1990 as a baseline from which to reduce. Sample required reductions are 6% for Canada, 7% for the US, 8% for EU countries (see chart below). The protocol is a commitment by members, and is not optional.

Reduction goals must be met by 2008-2012. "Developing" countries do not have to adhere to as strict regulations. Countries are allowed to be flexible in how they achieve their reduction goals, as long as they meet them.

GHG identified are:

CO₂ - Carbon dioxide
CH₄ - Methane
N₂O - Nitrous oxide
PFCs - Perfluorocarbons
HFCs - Hydrofluorocarbons
SF₆ - Sulphur hexafluoride

Interestingly:

• The Umbrella Group which formed during negotiations for the protocol, has consistently protested and slowed activity for the protocol and wants a slower approach to GHG reductions. This group consists of Canada, the United States, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, Norway, New Zealand, and Australia. (should be called the Unbridled Greed Group) 
• Economic measures are in the protocol which enable countries to make financial gains by being greener, with emissions trading, investment in other countries’ green projects, and by increasing their amount of vegetation that will absorb CO2 (CO2 "sinks"), they gain points that they can to offset toward emissions.
• Countries are divided into Annex I for developed countries and Non-Annex I for developing.
• There is an Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which is composed of 43 low-lying and small island countries, most vulnerable to sea level rise. Climate change threatens their survival and they usually work together in Kyoto negotiations. (couldn't they have called it OASIS? Oops, that wouldn't be funny.) 
• There are 48 countries which are considered least developed, (LDC), and they have the most room in GHG emissions. They are also encouraged to use some green smarts in their development.

History of the Kyoto Protocol:

• 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
• 1994 Convention on Climate Change decides it needs an agreement with stricter demands for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions
• 1995 Negotiations begun
• 11 December 1997 Adopted as an addendum to CCC, with 130 countries involved.
• 16 March 1998 to 15 March 1999, open to signature at UN Headquarters, New York
• 16 February 2005 Protocol became an official international treaty recognised by the UN.
• November 2007 IPCC releases study, The Fourth Assessment Report, by scientists stating that human induced climate change is real (see post by me earlier this month on this report), that we are already witnessing human induced global warming, and that results could be disastrous (but you have the option to deny that, if you like being an idiot). CO2 is named as the most important GHG.

 

Often in the arena of climate change and global warming, the fingers are all pointed at the burning of fossil fuels.

(Let’s get one thing straight: the temperatures are rising, the Arctic and Antarctic ice is melting, and the sea levels are rising. These are straight-up facts and not some invented "conspiracy". If you would like to believe they are not happening, then go ahead and live in your fantasy world. But don’t bloody read my blog anymore, because I am a scientist and I deal with the facts.)

Left out of the discussions, summits, thinktanks, and solutions, has oft been the issue of deforestation. Even at the UN summit this week, I have yet to find that anyone’s brought up this subject. Everyone is spouting climate change and emissions caps, which is fantastic, but no one is saying, om….how ‘bout not cutting down all the trees and how ‘bout, not turning a massive meadow into a Wal-Mart (or its equivalent, a Tessco, a Super-Target, a insert name for giant store where you can get anything from tea to tampons) is about the worst thing for the planet, you can possibly do?

With the climate, as with anything else on the earth (or outer space for that matter), when you affect one thing, you affect a whole bunch of other things, to put it simply. For instance, as the arctic ice melts from warmer temperatures, the area that was white in colour and reflected sunlight back to space, is darker, and absorbs more radiation, thus increasing the temps in the area even more. With deforestation, you are messing with the hydrologic cycle in a big way. Trees and plants are an important portion of this cycle.

 

 

They are in two ways: one, they absorb the water through their leaves and roots, and send it back out through their leaves, as transpiration. Secondly, they filter the runoff by doing the previous process. When they are removed in large amounts, the cycle has been disrupted. Every day, an actively growing plant transpires between 5 and 10 times as much water as it can hold at once.

Trees and plants also take in carbon in photosynthesis and release oxygen. This means, removal of plants can increase global warming. You can say, but hey, can’t a rise in temps cause more plants to grow? Well, yes, you COULD say that. However, it will (and has) also cause droughts, which kill plants (I watched my yard in NC go from lush to desert wasteland for the past 3 summers, even lost a great big tree). As well, many of the types of trees and plants that grow in an area, will not be able to adapt with changing temperatures, nor will many of the creatures that fertilise or pollinate them. Then we have the issue of crops---a whole ‘nother issue that would make this posting too long.

The Amazon rainforest provides the world’s ocean balance with about 1/5 of its freshwater. (The Amazon rainforest now has a new threat: soy farming. Soy is used in feed to fatten chickens, make vegetable oil, etc. How on earth will a savvy consumer be able to track that?) Removal of these trees, messes up a big part of the globe’s hydro cycle. Also in removal of them and subsequent burning, contributes more carbon into the atmosphere.

 

Amazon_soy_farm, Nature Conservancy photo

Published on September 25 2007 in PNAS, The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, is an article on river runoff increase and deforestation/land use change. Their findings: the observed significant increase in global runoff in the 20th century was mainly a consequence of climate change and widespread deforestation.

As of this month, the Northwest Passage has been open (from ice) for the first time since satellite observation of the area began in the 1970s.

 

NASA satellite image, NW Passage

By the way: the process of making concrete also contributes to CO2 in the atmosphere. Wal-Marts suck. (I have boycotted them for about ten years now)

Flooding continues in parts of the world that were predicted to have such issues by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Included in the "parts" is China.

25 people in the Shaanxi Province are dead from flooding the past few days, with 37 more missing. The province has ben inundated with water falling from the sky (aka rain) since Tuesday.

In Lushi, Henan Province, flooding also wreaked havoc. Ganzou Province was drenched for six hours on Friday alone, inevitably, causing flooding.

Ten more in Ya’an City, Sichuan Province who were building a hydropower station died when the massive rains caused a mudslide on Friday. Two more are still missing. The province expects more rain over the next several days.

So far 712 people are dead from flooding in China last month. 163 are still listed as missing (om….sadly, time to give up on finding them).

Flooding has been on the rise (pardon the terminology) in China in recent years. Scientists blame global warming for the increase. Ironically, China is now the leader in atmospheric CO2 output and refuses to put a damper on its usage of dirty coal. (Their government is to blame.)

According to the UN, around 500 million people in China a year are affected by floods, in the past few years. The UN also reports that the entire globe is undergoing record-breaking weather in 2007, with floods in Asia, European heat waves, South African snow in areas where snow does not normally fall (they also got some flooding on the coast), and flooding in Europe. Not in the news release, were the eastern and western droughts that still persist in the United States.

"The problem today is that around the world vulnerability to disasters continues to increase, a situation that will worsen with climate change," said UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) Director Sálvano Briceño. He then acknowledged the IPCC’s reports and that they are so far apparently accurate.

 

Please see previous posts, going months back, for other weather/climate gone bonkers news.

 

 

 

Inundated by excessive amounts of rain, India has extensive flooding that has taken the homes of astounding amounts of its people.

Andhra Pradesh:  Death toll 45 people, when flash floods washed them away as it wiped out their houses in June. (by the way, there was a BP Ultimate Unleaded ad on this news article’s page)

Sarangpur: July 3 and 4, surrounded six feet of water, and in the city, more.

Jaipur: A makeshift country work vehicle went into the swollen Thapi river and 25 people died.

West Bengal: rivers swelling and rising as downpours fall. Death toll as of July 7: 27.

Darbhanga, Sitamarhi and Madhubani: flooded since July 28. Bagmati and Kamala Balan rivers still rising.

The Water Resources Department reports that all rivers between the Gandak and the Koshi are flowing at 1.20 to 2.30 meters (one meter ~= 3 feet) above the danger level.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) released a report in April that stated that many parts of the world would be affected by “more intense precipitation events” (rain), including Europe (Hello, England, July. Hello, Spain, Italy, May-June). In fact, it qualifies it as “very likely, over many areas”. (Do I have a copy of the report? You betcha.)

In other areas, there will be doughts, such as, inter-continental mid-latitude zones (listed as “likely”. Know this all has many factors in a climate model.), and “intensified droughts and floods associated with El Nino events”. 

“Increased Asian summer monsoon* precipitation”, say the IPCC's findings.

On Monday, April 2 2007, the United States Supreme Court ruled that global warming is a serious and urgent problem. Please see my posting, A Truckload of White Boys, among others, for the Whitehouse’s take on doing its part (Apparently, what we need is “more energy security”!).

* Monsoons are seasonal periods of rain 

 

 

Northern Nevada: Over 12 wildfires that encompass 55 square miles, one of which was 33 square miles alone, scorched the land and forced evacuations and highway closings. The area was already dry and a persistent heat wave with temps over 100 degrees Farenheit has managed to evaporate even more moisture from the thirsty land and plant life was all that was needed to encourage the blaze.

Utah, near Salt Lake City: A lightning strike was responsible for a wildfire that has dibs on a large geothermal power plant, homes, farms and campsites. Three people were killed in the fire when they tried to help a fellow farmer save his hay crop from it with sprinklers. The fire also downed power lines. It used drought-dried pinion trees as its fuel.

Inyo National Forest, near Yosemite National Park, California: the million-acre park as of today has lost over 17,000 acres to wildfire. Over 400 firefighters have been called to battle the blaze. Campers and people in a lodge have been evacuated.

Great Falls and Billings, Montana: Record temperatures were set Saturday in the persistent heat wave. Temps soared to 104. Cows outnumber people in the area two to one. (Hint: cows are big producers of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas that outpowers CO2 by 10 to 20 times. How? They fart alot. Guess that means my ex husband is a big contributor too.) One farmer complained that his hay crop was in danger of "disintegrating" in the heat.

Other baked Montana cities: Havre,105 degrees F, Bozeman, 106 and 107 in Missoula.

Cooking the residents of Idaho and setting more records: Boise, 105 F, Pocatello, 102 and Lewiston, 101, on Friday. The biggest producer of electricity in the state, Idaho Power, reported record consumption since they have kept records, which would be for the past 90 years, of electricity on Friday as people cranked up the air conditioners and glued themselves to their television sets to wait out the heat wave. The last record usage for the power company was set in 2006.

Phoenix, Arizona was in trouble as temps reached 115 on Wednesday. It dropped to 112 on Thursday.

Eastern Oregon: Record high temps were set on Thursday.

California cities: Needles, 115. San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles, 100. Wildfires burn from Santa Barbara to San Diego, fueled by the drought and high temps. One fire burned in Los Padres National Forest, where it has claimed nearly 500 acres so far. Another fire rages near San Diego and has charred 110 acres at the time I wrote this. In Kern County, a fire that has been burning sine June 24 and burned over 19 square miles has destroyed 13 homes and 18 outbuildings. Lake Tahoe: Over 200 homes were destroyed in a wildfire that burned 3,100 acres. 

California Rain: Only 3.21 inches of precipitation downtown between July 1, 2006, and June 30, 2007, the driest year on record, and 12 inches short of the norm.

 

Meanwhile, there is flooding in China, India, England, Italy, Spain, and other countries.

 

 

John Jakes said, "Be yourself. Above all, let who you are, what you are, what you believe, shine through every sentence you write, every piece you finish."

I believe that global warming is real, and that humans have created a mess that we may not be able to get out of. As a Geologist and Earth Scientist, I am educated and informed and I know that even though we ARE coming out of an ice age and the earth is warming on its own, it has been warming at a pace far beyond geologically historical precedence. Also I know enough about chemistry that I can say with certainty, you put a bunch of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, you will make the earth warm up faster. Also if you cause the ocean currents to change, and it is happening in the Arctic from the ice melt, you will further cause climate change, because the Gulf Stream warms western Europe and it will be disrupted and cause, we believe, cooling there. All this will be bad news. All this will create havoc in that it will interrupt crop production, cause some lifeforms to go extinct while others flourish like insects, and disease and death will ensue. And how 'bout that extreme weather stuff.

 

 

I am not a pessimist. I am an optimist. But I am also a realist. And a mother. I want my son to have a world to live in that is not in chaos or misery. I want my grandchildren to have it too. Also I love, love, love creatures and plants(except maybe lice, ticks and fleas and mosquitos). And even the lowly dung beetle has its place in the grand scheme of things. They all have the right to be here and not be destroyed because Joe Yuppie in his 3200 square foot house with a big green grass lawn and sprinkler system wanted a Nissan SUV that gets 18 mpg for his gym bunnie wife to drive his soccer champ son around in because it is "safer". Really?  

Safer? Will his children have food to eat in ten years? Or will they die from exposure because heating their house cost too much? Or will they get killed running from gunfire because of massive political chaos from people being furious at their government for screwing them over for a hundred years?

Neil Young sang:

I was lying in a burned out basement
With the full moon in my eyes.
I was hoping for replacement
When the sun burst thru the sky.
There was a band playing in my head
And I felt like getting high.
I was thinking about what a
Friend had said
I was hoping it was a lie.
Thinking about what a
Friend had said
I was hoping it was a lie.
 

Look at Mother Nature on the run.